Mohammad Hijairi – Beirut
In his book “The Hidden Story of Assad’s Fall and Ahmed Al-Sharaa’s Vision” (Riad El-Rayyes Books, 2026), Mounir Al-Rabie, editor-in-chief of Al-Modon, chooses a complex and pivotal moment to write about Syria: the moment of Assad’s fall—or flight—and the rise of Al-Sharaa to power after 14 years of revolution and war. The first is the biological heir of Hafez al-Assad and the Baathist authoritarian system; the second emerges from an ambiguous background—his father was an Arab nationalist influenced by Nasserism. Al-Sharaa evolved from a jihadist fighter in Iraq into a multifaceted figure in the Syrian revolution and war, transforming from a faceless, ghost-like voice on Al Jazeera into a field commander leading armed Syrian factions in the heart of Damascus.
For years, the prevailing belief—after Syria had turned into a battleground for international conflict, divided among the United States, Russia, Iran, Israel, and Turkey, and controlled by Islamist, Kurdish, regime, ISIS, and tribal factions—was that Bashar al-Assad remained in power due to the absence of an internationally agreed-upon alternative. He had survived waves of protests, revolutions, and battles, especially after Russian intervention and the involvement of Iranian, Afghan, and Lebanese Shiite militias. Some even believed he might eventually pass power to his son, Hafez.
Yet, in a decisive turning point, Iranian militias fractured, and the regime that had oppressed Syrians for over half a century collapsed. “The fall of Assad was not merely a political event, but also a psychological moment—a breaking of an image that had seemed unshakable for years” (p. 24). “Damascus, dawn of December 8—a date that will never be erased from Syrians’ memory, no matter how hard they try to treat it as a passing event” (p. 31). Fear had long filled the air, but something suddenly broke at that dawn: “A barefoot woman ran through a Damascus neighborhood, screaming from the depths of her soul: ‘Assad has fallen.’ It was not a slogan—she was screaming” (p. 32).
Even then, disbelief lingered. After decades in which the Assadist Baath regime dominated public space, streets, schools, media, textbooks, history, and even dreams, Syrians struggled to comprehend how “eternity” could end. Yet “Assad left after burdening the country with devastation” (p. 40): entire cities reduced to rubble, mass graves left by barrel bombs, systematic looting, and sectarian cleansing.
Al-Assad had long believed Syria’s geopolitical position would always protect him, but he underestimated how far he had gone in the “game of nations.” Following the October 7 events in Gaza, the “support war” in Lebanon, and the killing of Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah, his alliances unraveled. At one point, Assad found himself “with no rope left to hold onto or dance upon.” Some analysts even claimed he fell politically in Beirut’s southern suburbs rather than in Damascus—on the day of Nasrallah’s assassination.
Al-Rabie writes about this turning point and its implications for a country whose geography has always made it a focal point of global contention: “Syria lies at the crossroads between Iraq and the Asian interior and the Mediterranean, on routes leading to Egypt, and at the northern edge of the Arabian Peninsula” (p. 16). The prevailing notion has long been that whoever controls Syria controls the Middle East. Thus, Assad’s fall felt to many not just like the fall of a man or a government, but the collapse of an idea embodied in the word “eternity.”
Rather than relying solely on descriptive narration, Al-Rabie draws on testimonies from individuals at the heart of decision-making and conflict, revealing how the Assad regime was managed—and how it gradually eroded from within. “The outcome was the result of 14 years of accumulation: revolution, bloody war, experience, mistakes, sacrifices, and deep social transformations” (p. 26).
Even the author himself initially struggled to believe the news. When told that Sednaya prison was being opened, “I couldn’t rejoice immediately” (p. 119). When he decided to return to Damascus after twenty years—having been banned from visiting Syria due to his support for the revolution—one thought dominated his mind: “Entering Damascus today no longer requires writing one’s last will” (p. 123). Yet the greatest fear after Assad’s fall “was not the fall of the regime, but the vacuum that might follow” (p. 132).
Drawing on exclusive field sources, Al-Rabie recounts the hidden dynamics of Assad’s fall and presents Ahmed Al-Sharaa’s vision for a “new Syria,” based on interviews with him and members of his close circle. He portrays Al-Sharaa as a “multi-layered” figure—a pragmatic leader of the transitional phase seeking to transform Syria “from a battlefield into a center of attraction” and “from trenches to diplomacy.” The moment required a shift “from revolutionary legitimacy to state legitimacy.”
A key principle in Al-Sharaa’s thinking was avoiding the fate of Libya or Iraq, where the state disintegrated and power fragmented among competing armed groups. What happened in Syria was not merely an internal matter—it had repercussions across the entire Levant. Political alignments shifted, economic orientations changed, and Syria moved from the Russian-aligned eastern camp toward a more open—or intermediate—position with the West, bringing new complexities and questions.
The new leadership envisions Syria as a “commercial hub linking East and West.” Damascus seeks to reposition itself as a regional connector by strengthening ties with Turkey and Saudi Arabia and reviving the symbolic Hejaz railway as a political and economic corridor (p. 198). The author highlights Syria’s strengths: it is “not a poor country,” thanks to its strategic location, natural resources such as gas and phosphates, and fertile land. While not vast compared to other nations, these resources form a viable economic base. However, “the real strength lies not only in resources, but in people.”
Syria’s diverse and complex social fabric presents both a challenge and a richness, requiring careful state-building and social cohesion. “Post-Assad Syria has the potential to become what could be described as a ‘dark horse’ in the Eastern Mediterranean” (p. 203).
The book tackles a wide range of complex issues—from oil and resources to economic policy and international relations, from Russia and the United States to Arab countries and Turkey, as well as the roles of various communities, including Druze, Kurds, and Alawites. It also addresses the new leadership’s vision for a balanced relationship with Lebanon based on integration, in contrast to the dependency imposed by the previous regime.
While the new Syria has received international and regional support, Israel has used military force and leveraged internal divisions to pressure Damascus and extract long-term political gains (p. 244). Netanyahu, according to the book, seeks to “undermine the Syrian trajectory for reasons related to his domestic calculations” (p. 243).
In short, the book traces Syria’s journey from the era of “eternity” to an era of transformation, questions, and waiting.
